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Join other players talking about games. Visit the Y8 Forum. Go to Forum Hide. The result is that you lose the game on all those 17 throws out of 36 when you failed to bear off in one throw.
But if you had not doubled, Black could not have redoubled you and so, on average, you would have won one-quarter of those 17 games, in addition to the 19 you won by bearing off on your first throw.
What does all that amount to? Just this. If you double, you win 19 games out of 36 and lose If you don't, you win more than 23 and lose less than So don't double.
The advantage of winning twice as much, when you do win, nothing like makes up for the extra games you win by not doubling. No-miss situations are ones where both sides have all their men on their one point, or most on the one point and the rest on the two point except for one or two on the three point.
The effect is that any throw right to the end is virtually certain to bear off two men, and any double will bear off four men.
The rules are simple:. In all other running game situations you need a formula. I am going to give one for those readers who don't want to take things too seriously, and one for those who are willing to take more trouble.
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